Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Go Big Or Go Home

Still the most active thread in the history of the ELTP message board on Yahoo.  I know, take it for what it's worth, but it's still most well-received so far.


SHOULD ELTP BE A $5.00 STOCK?   HERE'S THE "FACTS", WITH LINKS:

1) Elite FDA Approved Phentermine diet drugs have launched, it will bring millions of dollars to Elite's revenue:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Elite-Phar...

2) Elite FDA Approved Diet Drug Phentermine deliver results - CNN Report

"Phentermine shown significant promise in promoting weight loss, according to a new report"

http://thechart.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/10...

3) ELITE 6 BILLION DOLLAR PIPELINE
Two more FDA-approved drugs (Hydromorphone, and Naltrexone) will be launched soon:

http://www.elitepharma.com/product_pipel...

4) Lodrane drugs are still on the market by simply changing its label:

You can buy Lodrane right now, Lodrane is on shelf for sale at CVS

http://www.cvs.com/CVSApp/health/medicat...

http://www.coloradoallergy.com/pdf/ho155...

5) EPIC paid Elite $3.75M for a strategic alliance agreement, adding many more products to pipeline:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Elite-Phar...

6) TPN paid Elite $500K for lawsuit settlement, and Elite can make and commercialize Methadone drugs without any restriction:

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/110317/eltp.ob8-k...

7) Oxycodone pain relief drugs are in phase-3 trial, will be approved soon. Pain relief market is worth
$18 BILLION in 2010 and $24.9 BILLION in 2017:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20...

8) New manangement say company is turning around from no drugs approve, to many drugs approved. New management will lead the company to success.

http://www.veracast.com/webcasts/bio/ceo...

9) Elite with Epic Pharma - Largest contract manufacturer in the United States for a large pharmaceutical company

http://www.epic-pharma.com/


Sentiment : Strong Buy (read more by clicking here)

When Elite Traded Much Higher

For some time, Elite Pharma ran at a much higher pps.  Currently, investors are agonizing over the current .083 price as of 08/23/11 close.  The stock has basically flatlined since the year end 2008.  The current team working behind the scenes has set off on a course that can and has been under heavy scrutiny on any of the major stock investment chat boards.

There has been a couple significant delays, and less than fully impressive earnings reports and conference calls.

Will there be a merger?

Will there be a major drug produced?

Will there be finally be rewards for the stockholders?

Long and strong has been the motto.  But how long is long?  Those that are dedicated are making their pitch.  And in our observations, it has been the bashers who come and go, setting destruction along their path with no more real "truths" than anyone else.  Ultimately, the company must come through on more of their promises for extended profits on all fronts.


Something to consider with Elite Pharma

Assumptions as made by a poster   on the yahoo boards. Yeah, there's no one pro that knows the future, but here are some interesting assumptions made by this poster:

50% of revenue brought in goes Elite - Very low - They own these ANDAs

Takes the annual revenue of each drug, divides by the number of manufacturers, then assumes we only can get 50% market share of that number.  (Assumption!)

Lodrane – TBD

Naltrexone and Hydromorphone =120 million, figure 6.5 competitors (5 Naltrex, 8 for Hydro) - =120/6.5*50%*50%=4.61

Phentermine – $40 million, ~18 manufacturers = $555k (going to be a lot higher at over $1 a pill)

Epics 8 drugs – Since we don’t fully know what the drugs are, we will assume each drug profit avg 2 million. 15% * 16 million = 2.4 million

Isadiprine 2.5 and 5mg – 3 manufacturers as best I can find – 50 million a year in sales $50million/3*50%*50%=4.166 million

Phendimetrazine Tartrate Tablets USP, 35 mg – Fee based , no royalty – assume $250k very low

Total = 11.98 million / 243,363,531 shares = .049 * PE very low of .12 = .59 per share

CT order drug deal with Mikah - may find out 6/30 per SEC filings - Mikah is ACTAVIS per the 10K

TAGI intermediate drug

2 ELI drugs/Patents pending approval now = multiple drugs under patent – Proprietary drugs worth 100s of millions of dollars.

2 other drugs in pipeline on website

*************
Also add in Methadone. We do not know the terms of the agreement yet but know that methadone is a massively used drug. Probably several hundred million in revenue per year or more. Trying to find data but understand that their are hundreds if methadone clinics in the USA alone and the pills sell on the street similar to Oxycontin. SO you have to add that in when we have the numbers
***************

Add in the manufacturing fees which is looking to be substantial and we will be doing this for almost all our products now. That is why the CBE-30 I believe. The new facility is being used to package the materials it would seem as well as manufacturing. Need a lot of space to package all those materials now!