Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Something to consider with Elite Pharma

Assumptions as made by a poster   on the yahoo boards. Yeah, there's no one pro that knows the future, but here are some interesting assumptions made by this poster:

50% of revenue brought in goes Elite - Very low - They own these ANDAs

Takes the annual revenue of each drug, divides by the number of manufacturers, then assumes we only can get 50% market share of that number.  (Assumption!)

Lodrane – TBD

Naltrexone and Hydromorphone =120 million, figure 6.5 competitors (5 Naltrex, 8 for Hydro) - =120/6.5*50%*50%=4.61

Phentermine – $40 million, ~18 manufacturers = $555k (going to be a lot higher at over $1 a pill)

Epics 8 drugs – Since we don’t fully know what the drugs are, we will assume each drug profit avg 2 million. 15% * 16 million = 2.4 million

Isadiprine 2.5 and 5mg – 3 manufacturers as best I can find – 50 million a year in sales $50million/3*50%*50%=4.166 million

Phendimetrazine Tartrate Tablets USP, 35 mg – Fee based , no royalty – assume $250k very low

Total = 11.98 million / 243,363,531 shares = .049 * PE very low of .12 = .59 per share

CT order drug deal with Mikah - may find out 6/30 per SEC filings - Mikah is ACTAVIS per the 10K

TAGI intermediate drug

2 ELI drugs/Patents pending approval now = multiple drugs under patent – Proprietary drugs worth 100s of millions of dollars.

2 other drugs in pipeline on website

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Also add in Methadone. We do not know the terms of the agreement yet but know that methadone is a massively used drug. Probably several hundred million in revenue per year or more. Trying to find data but understand that their are hundreds if methadone clinics in the USA alone and the pills sell on the street similar to Oxycontin. SO you have to add that in when we have the numbers
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Add in the manufacturing fees which is looking to be substantial and we will be doing this for almost all our products now. That is why the CBE-30 I believe. The new facility is being used to package the materials it would seem as well as manufacturing. Need a lot of space to package all those materials now!


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